Future Notes

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The Transmutation of Jihadi Organizations in the Sahel and the Regional Security Architecture

Since 2017, the jihadi scene in the Sahel has witnessed major changes with the merger of all the groups that were affiliated with Al-Qaeda, leading to the creation of a new and powerful one: the Group in Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghali. In parallel, and since 2015, [...]

Iraqi Kurdistan and Beyond: The EU’s Stakes’

In 2017, Iraq saw events that dramatically changed its political and societal reality. Not only the territorial defeat of the so-called Islamic State but also the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum and the retaking of the disputed areas by Iraqi forces loyal to Baghdad had important implications for the Middle East as a whole and also affected [...]

The Riddle of the Sphinx: Why President Sisi Fears the Election

The riddle posed by President Sisi’s words and behaviour is if his regime is performing as well as he claims, why is he so politically insecure? Although threats of terrorism and widespread anti-regime violence appear to be receding, the political crackdown, including upon potential candidates for the upcoming presidential election, has intensified. This reflects Sisi’s [...]

Future Challenges of Climate Change in the MENA Region

The MENA region will be one of those most severely affected by ongoing climate changes. These will be caused by increased average temperatures, less and more erratic precipitation, changing patterns of rainfall, continuing sea-level rise and changes in water supply. All this will happen in a region which already suffers from aridity, recurrent drought and [...]

How Can Renewable Energy Help Contribute to the Development of the MENA Countries?

Increasing energy demand, for electricity in particular, and energy security concerns, a sharp cost reduction in renewable energy technologies and socio-economic benefits as well as environmental issues are all considerations that have played an important role in advancing the deployment of renewable energy technologies throughout the world. The MENA region is no exception, and it [...]

Precarious Resilience: Tunisia’s Libyan Predicament

Libya suffers from an interlinked political, security and economic crisis that is proving to be particularly destabilising for its neighboring Tunisia. The emerging conflict economy across the Tunisia–Libya border, the proliferation of non-state armed groups along with support from external actors and the backlash of increasing securitization of the border regions intended to contain the [...]

A New Phase in Turkish Foreign Policy: Expediency and AKP Survival

The forced departure of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu in May 2016 and the attempted coup d’état of July 2016 against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey were catalysts for a new phase in the country’s foreign policy. The emphasis on the “civilizational” aspects of Turkey’s role in foreign affairs is diminishing and [...]

Energy Relations between Turkey and Israel

This Future Note* prepared within the scope of the MENARA project aims to provide a brief outlook to the energy relations between Israel and Turkey. Following a six years of rupture in bilateral relations, Turkey and Israel signed a reconciliation agreement on June 2016 in order to normalize relations. Several developments have unfolded at regional level during this [...]

The New US President: Implications for the Middle East and North Africa

By Robert Springborg The US presidential elections of 8 November 2016 will see two different visions of America’s future confronting one another. While most of the presidential debates have focussed on domestic issues, including the economy, trade issues and societal polarisation, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has typically represented an important area for [...]

Implications of the EU Global Strategy for the Middle East and North Africa

The Middle east and North Africa are in turmoil, europe’s security is inextricably linked to what happens in this region, and yet the eu has limited capacities to change realities on the ground. these are three of the main messages of the eu Global strategy presented in June 2016. the document presents europeans and the...